Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Snowstorm Possibilities Through the Weekend

One storm is currently "raging" in the Wasatch, with another one possible this weekend.

The storm presently underway is of the artificial variety as the resorts lay down a base of artificial snow in preparation for the coming ski season.  Below is a view of Alta this morning.

Source: Alta.com
I'm guessing someone will try to ski the white ribbon of death in the near future, if they haven't already.

The second storm is fortunately of the natural variety.  Most of the medium range ensemble model forecasts are calling for an upper-level trough and surface front passage this weekend.  This is true of the GEFS ensemble below, as well as the gold-standard ECMWF ensemble.
Source: NWS
There is, however, some variability and timing and amount.  Some forecasts are calling for the action to get going early Saturday, others later Saturday.  Some suggest a few inches for the mountains, others a more significant event.  We've passed the so called predictability horizon with regards to the big picture (i.e., there will be a trough/front passage this weekend), but not for the gory details.  We'll see how things come together in the coming days.


  1. Noaa claims the GSL is 18C, fingers crossed for some lake effect!!

    1. Latest GSL temps at http://home.chpc.utah.edu/~u0198116/AVHRR/gsltemp.html. Ignore the 48-hour stuff which is old.