Saturday, October 19, 2013

Melting and Rotting

High country snow on north facing aspects above Mill Creek Canyon, October 18, 2013
As so often happens in Utah during October, and early season snowstorm is followed by an extended period of splendid fall weather.  The long-range forecast models suggest that the dry weather we've experienced the past couple of days will persist for at least several days more as both the GFS ensemble (upper left panel) and the ECMWF ensemble (lower left) keep us under the influence of a high amplitude ridge through the middle of next week.

Source: NWS
Even longer range forecasts suggest that this dry weather may continue even longer, although we'll have to see if that comes to fruition.  One thing is certain, the snow that currently exists on south, west, or east facing aspects is toast.  The $64,000 question is what will happen to the snow on upper-elevation slopes facing the northern half of the compass.  It's tough to melt snow this time of year on those aspects.  Will that snow facet and weaken?  That's something to ponder and keep in mind when the snow starts to fly again.

No comments:

Post a Comment