Sunday, March 17, 2013

Post Mortem

My subjective impression of the 4-km NAM forecast for this morning's 0900–1500 UTC (0300–0900 MDT) period discussed in the previous post is that it was far too wet in both the mountains and the lowlands.  Here are a few precipitation observations for the period, which are all less than what was produced by the 4-km NAM.

Ogden: T
Salt Lake City: T
Alta-Collins: .09"
Alta-Atwater: .12"
Alta-Guard: .16"
Lookout Peak: ~.20"
Ben Lomond Peak: ~.10"
Powder Mountain: ~.11"

Call this false alarm (i.e., overforecast) #1.  We'll see how it does in future events, but I'm going to guess we are going to see more of this, especially in the mountains, although there will eventually be a moment of glory when it nails a big one.

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