We discussed last week how deep extratropical cyclones often feature a warm-core seclusion, an isolated pocket of warm air near the center of the system. Indeed, the graphics below show the development of a warm-core seclusion as the nor'easter intensifies off the eastern seaboard through midweek.
|GFS sea level pressure (every 4 mb) and 925-mb temperature (every 2ºC)|
forecasts valid 0300 UTC 7 Nov, 1500 UTC 7 Nov, and 0600 UTC 8 Nov 2012
The close-up below better highlights the warm core seclusion, which at its center is about 6ºC warmer than the surrounding airmass.
|GFS Sea level pressure (every 4 mb) and 925-mb temperature (every 2ºC)|
forecast valid 0600 UTC 8 Nov 2012
|The Shapiro-Keyser Model|
The nor'easter will bring another bout of hazardous weather for the vulnerable eastern seaboard. Let's hope the the latest model forecasts are wrong and the storm shifts eastward and farther out to sea.