Thursday, October 4, 2012

The Lives and Deaths of Jelewat

Typhoon Jelewat should have been named Lazarus as it has now risen from the dead not once but twice.

Perhaps risen from the dead is an overstatement, but Jelewat has now experienced three development cycles.

In the first, it developed as a tropical cyclone, which can be seen sliding past the Philippines and Taiwan and rumbling across Okinawa in the first few frames of the loop below.

During this period, Jelewat was a beast, attaining Super Typhoon status with a peak 10-minute sustained wind of 125 mph, a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 160 mph, and a minimum central pressure of 905 mb (the latter not captured by the analysis above).  On Okinawa, pressures dropped below 950 mb and a peak gust of 137 mph was observed at a Japanese Meteorological Agency Site.

Jelewat then weakened as it moved northeastward across Japan.

In the second, the remnants of Jelewat redeveloped as an extratropical cyclone south of the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Aleutian Islands through a process sometimes called extratropical transition.  During it's 2nd life, Jelewat became a powerful storm once again.  Ocean Prediction Center analyses suggest a central pressure of only 980 mb at 1800 UTC 2 Oct, but accompanied by hurricane force winds.

Source: NCEP/OPC
"Jelewat" (in quotes now as it is no longer a tropical cyclone) then weakened, but only marginally.  Nevertheless, after a brief period of weakening, it then experienced a third development cycle, merging with a weaker cyclone moving off the Russian Coast and deepening to ~970 mb over the Bering Sea.  

Source: NCEP/OPC
A quick look at the models suggests that Jelewat will not cheat death again and will decay in the Arctic.   Bon voyage mon ami.

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