Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Seasonal Forecast Insanity

We've reached the time of year where speculation runs rampant about what kind of winter we will have.  Don't buy into the hype.  If El Nino develops as currently predicted, it might skew the odds a bit for above average snow in the Southwest and below average in then Northwest.  This is reflected in the Climate Prediction Center outlook for Sep–Nov.

 Beyond that it's anyone's guess, as summarized nicely in this Powder Magazine graphic.

Presumably by "a lot or a little" they mean relative to climatology.  Another perspective is provided by this T-shirt, which I spotted last winter at Alf's Restaurant.

For northern Utah, I feel pretty comfortable saying that I have no idea if it is going to be an above average or below average winter, but I'll take my chances in the Cottonwoods compared to anywhere else in the contiguous US.


  1. Cue Woolly Worm Story: My Wife found an albino woolly worm the other day. Must be a good sign.

  2. Amen to the confidence in the Cottonwoods. Powder Mag's forecast is about the most honest thing out there right now, but even in our most apocalyptic, disastrous, end of days winter last year, we still came out with more snow than most CO resorts advertise as their average. it was my first full winter in SLC and i promise, our worst still aint that bad. heres to an average season