Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Tantalizingly Close

The latest GFS forecast puts us tantalizingly close to the winter storm action over the next few days, but we remain on the periphery of the storm track.  

I try to avoid wishcasting – forecasting what one wants to happen rather than what is most likely to happen – so my sober assessment is that the Cottonwoods might get a bit of snow if this forecast verifies, but not more than a few periods of snow adding up to a few inches.  However, since we sit right on the edge of the storm track, a even a slight shift in position could make a big difference.  If the storm track is south of what's presently forecast, we'll see more snow.  If it is north, we'll see less.

The northern mountains may fare better.  Nevertheless, anything that falls during this period in Utah is likely to be dense and gloppy thanks to wind and high temperatures.  The 700-mb (near 10000 ft) temperatures are forecast to be -2 to -3ºC, which is quite balmy by late December standards.  Such is life on the south side of the jet core.

1 comment:

  1. Been watching the MJO closely, thinking its starting to move into a nice area for us. I'm thinking a change to a snowy pattern during the second week of January.