Our explosively deepening cyclone is now just south of the Aleutian Islands. As expected, another low has formed downstream and is just off the Queen Charlotte Islands. Those of you who are lovers of cyclones will be pleased to know that there is also a third cyclone over the Sea of Okhotsk. This is what meteorologists call a polar low, because of it's small scale and formation in cold air over a warm body of water.
|1500 UTC (0800 MST) 29 Nov 2011 IR satellite image and sea level|
|GFS forecast valid 1200 UTC (5 AM MST) 31 Nov 2011|
|GFS forecast sounding for KSLC valid 1200 UTC (5 AM MST) 31 Nov 2011|
The strength, duration, and areal coverage of this event will depend on the positioning of large-scale weather features, the strength and height of the stable layer, and other processes that are difficult to predict with precision at longer lead times. The potential is there, but we will have to see how this event comes together early Thursday morning.