At 700 mb the flow is now NW and temperatures are about -7 C.
The frontal trough slopes rearward from this level over the lake, so I suspect we will se a fairly pronounced stable layer near 600 or 500 mb in the 0000 UTC soundings. Looking forward to seeing what happens overnight. The 1800 UTC NAM and U of U WRF were "bullish" on the possibility of lake effect. The WRF forecast valid 0900 UTC is below.