Things are looking good for the first SOLPEX IOP with both the NAM and the GFS predicting large-scale conditions conducive to lake effect on Monday and Tuesday. The 12-km NAM shows cold-frontal passage sometime after 0000 MDT Monday,
then produces periods of lake-effect (and orographic precipitation) for about a day and a half, including Tuesday morning, which would be favored climatologically.
I believe the NAM uses climatology for lake temperatures, which probably underestimates current lake conditions. Things look good, but I've seen lake-effect smiles turn to lake-effect frowns before, so I'm trying to keep my enthusiasm tempered. Right now we are hoping to do an IOP Monday morning through Tuesday. WRF runs covering the period of interest should begin to come available tomorrow.